1. Provide a new 25-year land use strategy for the Bay Area that is realistic and identifies areas to accommodate all of the region’s population, including all income groups.  
  
2. Identify areas within the Bay Area sufficient to house an eight (8) year projection of the region’s housing need.

  
3. Forecast a land use pattern, which when integrated with the transportation system, reduces GHG emissions from passenger vehicles and light trucks and is measured against the Bay Area’s regional GHG emission reduction target as established by the California Area Resources Board (CARB). This will require quantifying the reduction in GHG emissions projected to be achieved under the SCS, and, if the SCS does not achieve the targeted reductions in GHG emissions, identifying the difference between the amount that the SCS would actually reduce GHG emissions and the target for the region.

CARB, in response to the mandates of SB 375, has set GHG targets for passenger vehicles and light trucks for each metropolitan region in California. For the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area (ABAG region), CARB set GHG emissions reduction targets of 7% reduction by 2020 and 15% reduction by 2050. The SCS must feasibly meet the GHG emissions reductions targets set by CARB, but SB 375 provides for an Alternative Planning Strategy (APS) if the GHG targets cannot be feasibly met through the SCS.

The SCS is required to be included as part of the Bay Area’s 25-year Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). By Federal law, the RTP must be internally consistent; consequently, the $200 (+) billion in transportation investments included in the Bay Area’s RTP must align with and support the SCS land use pattern. Additionally, SB 375 requires that an updated eight (8) year regional housing need allocation (RHNA) prepared by ABAG be consistent with the SCS. The SCS, RTP, and RHNA will be adopted simultaneously in early 2013.  
  
The goal of the SCS is not only to reduce GHG emissions, but also to help set a vision for the growth and development of the Bay Area for the next 25 years by confronting the 21st Century challenges associated with the region’s growing and changing population, shifting economic realities, increasing public health imperatives, and climate change. In recognition of these other goals, ABAG and MTC will be adopting performance targets and indicators that will help inform decision-makers about land use patterns and transportation investments. These targets and indicators will apply to the SCS and the RTP, although they will not weigh as heavily as GHG reduction targets, but will provide additional criteria for use in comparing alternative SCS scenarios.   

It is anticipated that the SCS will build upon existing efforts in Bay Area communities to encourage more focused and compact growth through a joint ABAG/MTC project called “FOCUS Priority Development Areas (PDAs)”. The PDAs provide a foundation upon which to structure the region’s Sustainable Communities Strategy. PDAs are locally identified and regionally adopted infill development opportunity areas located near transit. There are several planned and proposed PDAs in the unincorporated area, including: Contra Costa Centre, Pittsburg/Bay Point BART Station Area, Downtown El Sobrante, along the San Pablo Avenue, and North Richmond. PDAs currently encompass approximately 3% of the region’s land area and it is estimated existing PDAs can collectively accommodate about 50% of the Bay Area’s housing need through 2035. While it is encouraging that 50% of region’s housing need could feasibly fit within a smaller footprint of land, it does indicate that there will be real challenges meeting the region’s needs for housing and employment outside of existing PDAs.  
  
Local Government Participation -SCS County/Corridor Working Group and Regional Advisory Working Group   
  
To be successful, the SCS will require partnership among regional agencies, local jurisdictions, Congestion Management Agencies (CMAs), transit agencies, and other regional stakeholder interests. MTC and ABAG are engaged in an exchange of information with local governments at several levels, primarily through County-Corridor Working Groups. A Contra Costa County-Corridor Working Group has already been formed under the auspices of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA). Besides CCTA staff, which provides coordination and technical support, it includes planners from the cities, CMA staff, and representatives from other key agencies such as transit agencies and ABAG/MTC planners. Staff from the Department of Conservation & Development is participating in the County-Corridor Working Group. It is envisioned that Working Group members will provide updates and information to their locally elected officials through regular reports like this one, and eventually through recommended council or board resolutions that acknowledge and respond to implications of the SCS for each jurisdiction.  
  
In addition to the County-Corridor Working Groups, a Regional Advisory Working Group (RAWG), comprised of local government officials (elected/non-elected) and key stakeholders throughout the region, provides technical oversight at the regional level. Staff from the CCTA has been participating in the RAWG meetings.  
  
It is believed that the County's costs for staff time devoted to the Sustainable Communities Strategy planning process will be subject to State reimbursement through the SB 90 program.  
  
  
  
Development of SCS Scenarios  
  
  
The SCS will be an iterative process that includes a sequence of growth and supportive transportation scenarios. The Vision Scenario will encompass an identification of places (place types), policies, and strategies for long-term, sustainable development in the Bay Area. It will incorporate the 25-year regional housing need, provide a set of housing employment growth projections at regional, county, jurisdictional, and sub-jurisdictional levels, and it will be evaluated against the Bay Area’s GHG emission reduction targets as well as other performance targets adopted for the SCS. It will be the responsibility of local governments to identify places with potential for sustainable development, including existing Priority Development Areas, transit corridors, employment areas, and other areas with infill development potential that lack transit services but offer opportunities for increased walkability and reduced driving.  
  
For Contra Costa County the place types to be factored into the Vision Scenario include: Pittsburg/Bay Point BART Station Area, Contra Costa Centre, Downtown El Sobrante, the San Pablo Avenue Corridor, and North Richmond. The intent of the Initial Vision Scenario is to show a development pattern that is unconstrained by public service limitations and funding for transportation and other public infrastructure.  
  
An Initial Vision Scenario should be released by ABAG in March 2011, followed by more detailed SCS scenarios that refine the Initial Vision Scenario, which is expected in Spring and Fall, 2011, with a final draft for review in early 2012.   
  
It is anticipated that by early Spring 2011, local governments, regional agencies, and stakeholder interests will be able to evaluate the feasibility of achieving the Initial Vision Scenario and then a series of Detailed Scenarios will be produced. The Detailed Scenarios will take into account constraints that might limit development potential, and will identify the infrastructure and resources needed to support the scenario. ABAG and MTC expect to release a first round of Detailed Scenarios by July 2011, following multiple workshops and discussions in response to the Initial Vision Scenario. It is also expected that the County/Corridor Working Groups as well as the RAWG will facilitate local input into the scenarios through the release of a Preferred Scenario by the end of 2011. The Detailed Scenarios and Preferred Scenario will evaluate the benefits of the land us alternatives in reducing GHG emissions, vehicle miles traveled, and other Performance Targets/Indicators as additional criteria. Attached for the Board's information is a flowchart prepared by ABAG that lays out the overall schedule for SCS development from 2010 through 2013.  
  
  
  
Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA) Process and Housing Elements  
  
As described above, SB 375 now sets an eight-year cycle for Housing Elements beginning in Year 2014, and the Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA) for the new Housing Element cycle must be consistent with the SCS. Planning for affordable housing will be one of the essential tasks in setting a vision for sustainable development in the Bay Area.   
  
Under the SCS, the task of establishing the RHNA is now integrated with the development of a regional land use strategy and the Regional Transportation Plan. The process of setting a new RHNA will begin in 2011 with following key milestones:  

• ABAG forms a Housing Methodology Committee that will begin meeting in January 2011 that will continue through September 2011;  
  
• Local jurisdictions to provide input prior to adoption of the RHNA Methodology by September 2011;

• Final housing numbers for the region to be issued by California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) by September 2011;

• ABAG to release Draft RHNA by Spring 2012 with final adoption by the end of Summer 2012;

• In 2013, local governments will prepare updated eight-year Housing Element (2014-2022).

The distribution of housing needs to local governments will inform the Detailed SCS Scenarios. For the current Housing Element cycle (2007-2014), ABAG had established a committee of elected and non-elected local officials to formulate a methodology to allocate the region’s housing needs to the cities and counties within the ABAG region and County staff participated and attended the committee meetings. Note that this time the County will have formal membership on the Housing Methodology Committee, and the County will be represented by the Department’s Affordable Housing Manager.  
  
SB 375/SCS linked to the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)  
  
A key purpose of the SCS is to provide an explicit link between land use choices and transportation investments. MTC will be preparing an RTP that defines financially constrained transportation priorities and investments based on the SCS. To begin the preparation of the RTP, MTC will be working closely with the CMAs (e.g. Contra Costa Transportation Authority) and local governments by issuing a call for transportation projects in early 2011. MTC will conduct a project assessment of the transportation projects that should be completed by mid-Summer 2011, which will then be incorporated into the Detailed SCS Scenarios. The RTP will be analyzed through 2012 and released for review by the end of 2012. ABAG is expected to adopt the SCS by March 2013 to then be followed by MTC’s adoption of the RTP in April 2013.  
  
ABAG and MTC will prepare one Environmental Impact Report (EIR) for both the SCS and RTP. The EIR would be released in parallel with the Draft SCS and the Draft RTP, which is expected to occur in Fall 2012. SB 375 provides that local jurisdictions may streamline environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for certain projects that are consistent with the SCS. ABAG and MTC are investigating the scope and strategies for the EIR so that it could provide effective support for SCS consistent projects sponsored by local governments. Also, ABAG and MTC are working with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (Air District) to develop tools and mitigation measures related to CEQA air quality, GHG, and health risk guidance and thresholds of significance recently enacted by the Air District.  
  
Upcoming events related to SB 375/SCS Process  
  
A series of briefing sessions has been planned on the SB 375/Sustainable Community Strategy Process through the CCTA’s Regional Transportation Planning Committees (RTPCs). Here is a tentative schedule for the RTPC briefings:   
  
TRANSPAC SCS briefing for Central County elected officials on Monday, January 31, 2011, 6:30 p.m., at the CCTA offices, Walnut Creek.   
  
TRANSPLAN SCS briefing for East County elected officials on Thursday, January 13, 2011, 6:30 p.m. at Tri-Delta Transit, Antioch.  
  
WCCTAC SCS briefing for West County elected officials on Friday, January 28, 2011, 8:00 p.m., at City of San Pablo Council Chambers, San Pablo.  
  
SWAT SCS briefing for South County elected officials on Monday, January 10, 2011, at 3:00 p.m., at the Town of Danville offices.  
  
Board members may wish to consider attending one of these RTPC-sponsored SCS briefing sessions. Also, ABAG has indicated that there will likely be a countywide presentation for elected officials in conjunction with the release of the SCS Initial Vision Scenario, and details on this countywide presentation are to follow once they become available.  
  
County’s Role in Developing the SCS  
  
Finally, the SCS provides an opportunity for the County to advance local goals as part of a coordinated regional framework for growth and development. SB 375 requires MTC and ABAG to hold several meetings with the Board of Supervisors in each county during the SCS development. The SCS may help connect the Board of Supervisors' concerns (in areas such as orderly development to accommodate future housing and employment needs, traffic congestion, natural resource protection, and public health) to regional goals, objectives, and funding resources as established under the SCS and RTP. As such, it provides the Board with an opportunity to participate in both a local and regional dialogue about the Bay Area’s future. With this in mind, staff has identified the following key questions or concerns related to the SCS process as it proceeds into 2011:  

1. How much housing and employment should/can the County accommodate in the unincorporated area to provide a meaningful contribution to smart growth and sustainable development for the Bay Area through 2035?   
  
2. How and where can the County provide new housing and employment opportunities in the unincorporated area over the next 25 years?  
  
3. What are the primary constraints to providing sustainable development opportunities in the unincorporated area of the County?  
  
4. How to ensure that the Sustainable Community Strategy will include a rural sustainability component to support the County's efforts to preserve and protect the County’s agricultural and natural resources over the next 25 years?  
  
5. How can the County ensure that the Regional Transportation Plan will support continued funding for rural county roads that carry regional traffic (e.g. Vasco Road)?   
  
6. Given the constraints of time and resources, how should the County through the Board of Supervisors and staff participate and engage in the Sustainable Community Strategy process? At what level should the Board review and consider input to the SCS process? Should Board oversight be achieved through an existing Board committee that reports and recommends to the full Board, through an ad hoc committee of the Board, or some other manner?